Principle One

Stages, not styles.

Applying the same valuation framework to a pre-revenue biotech, a hyper-growth SaaS company, and a dividend-paying utility produces meaningless scores. Every company is first auto-classified into one of four stages, and only then scored.

Stage A

Pre-Revenue / Early R&D

Revenue under $5M TTM with negative gross margins. Scored on TAM, IP moat, cash runway (2.5× weight), team quality, and partnerships. Traditional valuation multiples are excluded as structurally inapplicable.

Stage B

Pre-Profit Growth

Meaningful revenue but unprofitable. Scored on EV/Revenue, revenue growth rate (2× weight), contracted backlog (2×), cash runway, gross margin, and net revenue retention.

Stage C

Profitable / Mature

The traditional framework applies. P/E, PEG, FCF yield, ROE, ROA, debt coverage, Altman Z-score, and net margin all contribute to fundamental scoring.

Stage D

Distressed / Turnaround

Weighted heavily on Altman Z-score (3×), debt-to-equity trend, interest coverage (2×), cash burn, and specific recovery catalysts.

Principle Two

Four pillars, weighted by decision impact.

The composite score (1–100) is the weighted sum of four pillar scores, each independently calculated from 0 to 100.

Score = (Fundamentals × 45%) + (Risk × 20%) + (Technicals × 20%) + (Sentiment × 15%)
45%

Fundamentals

The largest pillar because business quality is the primary determinant of long-term returns. Metrics are weighted by stage. Free cash flow yield carries a 1.5× weight in Stage C because it is the most reliable indicator of financial health.

20%

Risk Assessment

Independent of fundamentals. Considers capital structure, dilution, regulatory exposure, customer concentration, and geopolitical sensitivity. Higher scores mean lower risk.

20%

Technical Analysis

The chart tells you when. Moving averages (2× weight for SMA-200), RSI, MACD, volume, 52-week position, and relative strength vs. sector and SPX.

15%

Sentiment & Catalysts

Analyst consensus, price target momentum, insider transactions (2× weight — corporate insiders have the best information), institutional flow, short interest, earnings surprise history, and binary catalysts within 90 days.

Principle Three

Auto-ceiling rules override optimism.

A compelling narrative cannot override a broken balance sheet. When specific red flags appear, the composite score is capped regardless of how strong other pillars look.

max 30 Active SEC or DOJ fraud investigation disclosed
max 35 Altman Z-score below 1.0 combined with cash runway under 6 months
max 40 Interest coverage below 1.0× combined with debt-to-equity above 3.0
max 45 Revenue declining by 20%+ YoY for two or more consecutive quarters
Score Thresholds

What the numbers mean.

91–100 High Conviction Up to 10% portfolio allocation
80–90 Strong Buy 5–8% allocation
65–79 Buy 3–6% allocation
50–64 Speculative Buy 1–3% allocation — higher risk
36–49 Watch Not a buy — monitor for changes
21–35 High Risk Significant concerns present
1–20 Skip Avoid or sell existing positions

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